I’m Miles Miller!

Last week wasn’t so good as far as my picks go.  Redskins beat the Cards, Denver did not beat the spread, Rams did not beat the spread, Giants did not destroy the Bengals, but the Chargers did beat up Brett’s Jets.  1-4, that puts me at 6-8-1 season-to-date.  But hey, on my every game picks on Yahoo! I’m in the 98th percentile.

Okay, so here’s my Stone Cold Picks for week 4.  Tough week with no Giants, Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, or Dolphins.
-Buffalo is on the road and giving 8 points, but I’ll take them over the Rams by double-digits.
-I’ll pick the Ravens and their rookie to pull the upset in Pittsburgh.
-Chargers will roll into Oakland and blow them away (>8).
-Browns will win the Battle for Ohio.
-Packers will win the Battle of the Bays.

Even without Tom Brady, this season is not disappointing.  You may be familiar with the ESPN Power Rankings.  Here’s my outlook.

1. Giants.  They are the champs, the defense is great, the running game is cooking, Eli is playing well, and the kicker won the game this week. They can win blowouts and now they show they can win close ones, too.
2.  Cowboys.  This may surprise people that they are not #1, but I am not sold on Tony Romo.  He’s still a clutz under center and makes a lot of dumb mistakes.  But this team is very very strong.
3.  Eagles.  Weird that the top 3 are all in the same division, but ask Big Ben and the Steelers how good those Iggles are.
4.  Titans.  This may also be a surprise.  But this team has one of the best running games, one of the best defenses, and now a QB that can throw.  They have the best point differential in football right now.  This is my Super Bowl pick.
5. Bills.  Bills and Titans = the top 2 AFC teams?  Strange, but true (currently).  Pretty good balanced team.
6.  Packers.  Losing a home game is a snap back to reality for Aaron Rodgers.  But hey, the Cowboys are pretty good, too.
7.  Steelers.  With a banged-up Rothlisberger and no Parker, this will be a tough game against a tough defense with Baltimore and I expect the Steelers to drop another one.
8.  Broncos.  The defense is just not good and they should have lost the last 2, but they didn’t.  And Cutler is having a great year (other than that un-fumble).
9.  Chargers.  I wanted to flip-flop with the Broncos, but the W did go to Denver last week, though undeserved.  That blowout against Brett Favre shows that this team is awake and kicking.  With another win this team will jump to #5.
10.  Redskins.  Good wins against the Saints and Cardinals. That’s right, the entire NFC East is in the top 10.
11.  Ravens.  Beating the Bungles and Brownies doesn’t show much, but it’s a good warmup for Flacco.  Bring on the Steelers.
12.  Jaguars.  I picked them to beat the Colts and I’m surprised the game was this close.  Let’s see what Garrard can do against the Texans d.
13.  Patriots.  Two weeks and then a game in San Francisco is enough time for Coach Bellichek to get them back on track.
14.  Panthers.
15.  Colts.  I’m calling it: no playoffs for Peyton this year.
16.  Cardinals.
17.  Bucs.
18.  Vikings.  Gus shows that the problem was indeed TavJack.  While they may no longer be much of a Super Bowl pick, they should still challenge for the division.
19.  Saints.  Where’s the defense?
20.  Bears.
21.  49ers.
22.  Jets.
23.  Falcons.  Nice bounce-back for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.  Thanks, Kansas City!
24.  Seahawks.
25.  Dolphins.  Did someone catch the license plate number of that truck?
26.  Browns.  Dallas, Pittsburgh and at Baltimore is a tough draw to start a season.  I think time is the answer, not Quinn. 
27.  Texans.  Poor guys.  At Pittsburgh, at Tennessee.  Next is at Jacksonville then the Colts. 
28.  Raiders.  Showing that they aren’t that bad.
29.  Bengals.
30.  Lions.  Looking at their schedule, this team could go 0-16. 
31.  Chiefs.  Very, very bad.
32.  Rams.  Very, very, very, very bad.

A couple games can teach us a lot about a team and give a pretty good idea of where they are at.

Pleasant suprises:
1) Patriots can still win a big game without Tom Brady.
2) Bills are strong, beating two playoff teams.
3) Aaron Rodgers has an upside.
4) Kurt Warner and the Cardinals look capable of winning the division.
5) The Titans are much better with Kerry Collins under center.
6 Denver is for real.
7) BYU 59, UCLA 0.

Expectations aside, these teams are in trouble:
1) Seahawks are dropping like flies.
2) Detroit’s defense couldn’t stop my mother.
3) Kansas City just got smoked by the Raiders.
4) Colts are very beatable.
5) Tavarius Jackson sucks.
6) Browns and Bengals look terrible.

Reviewing last week, the Titans, Patriots, and Broncos all won, the Vikings managed to lose a 15-0 lead and Matt Ryan wasn’t playing the Lions again.  So a 3-2 week, putting me at 5-4-1.

This week’s big picks:  I don’t like many upsets this week, so I gotta go for the spread. 
-Arizona will win in Washington to go 3-0.
-Denver will beat New Orleans by more than 6 to go 3-0.
-Chargers will beat the Jets by at least 9.
-St Louis will beat the spread and NOT lose to the Seahawks BY MORE than 9.
-Giants will beat the Bungles by at least 2 touchdowns.

Looking back at Week 1: the Iggles blew out the Rams as expected, the Titans beat the Jags, the Chiefs DID score a TD, but it was only one, after Tom Brady got hurt, and the Pats still won so I’ll call that a push.  Vikings got beat by the Pack and there were 3 games that tied for most points (none of which were Cards/9ers): Broncos/Raiders, Pittsburgh/Houston, and Detroit/Atlanta.  So I’ll call that a 2-2-1 week for me.

Week 2 picks:

-Even without Vince Young, Titans will beat the Bungles (and probably by at least a TD).
-Patriots and Cassell will beat Favre and the Jets.
-Colts go to 0-2 as the Vikings win.
-Chargers go to 0-2 as the Broncos take command in the division.
-Atlanta Falcons and Matt Ryan go to 2-0 with a road win at Tampa Bay.

Maybe I’m just naive, but I can’t believe that Tom Brady’s foot is ready to fall off because he skipped preseason.  They went 16-0 in the regular season last year.  They are still the most solid team in the NFL and they have the best coach in the league.  Yes, they have a target on their backs and teams will probably be better prepared for them. They do have a difficult road schedule, traveling to San Diego, Indianapolis, and Seattle. but even dropping to 14-2 would give them the best record in football.

Brett Favre sure brought a lot of hype to New York. But this is a team that won 4 games last year with a lot more holes than just QB.  And is a 39 year-old gunslinger who came in after training camp into a new system going to magically change that?  He had a big year last year, but the two before that were 8 and 4 win seasons.  They have a lot of winnable games, like the Jets did a couple years ago when they made the playoffs, but they also have a lot of tough games as well.  I think Buffalo has a chance to improve and beat out the Jets, but there are a lot of good teams in the AFC and I see only the Pats moving into the playoffs from the east.  The Dolphins should improve (hard not to), and 4 wins would be a step in the right direction.

The Steelers will be a solid team and are the class of the AFC North, but they have one of the toughest schedules in the AFC.  They play at Philadelphia, at Jacksonville, host the Giants, host Indianapolis, host the Chargers, at New England, host Dallas, and at Tenessee.  Winning 10 games will be an accomplishment.  The Browns had a powerful offense last year but they gave up the most points among all playoff contenders.  Their schedule is even tougher, with no gimmies outside of division play.  The Bengals are a mess and it will be a hard one on Carson Palmer.  Especially with Chad Johnson hurting his shoulder, after being such a distraction, and with their porous defense, this team is my pick to flop in the NFL and lose at least 11 games. Fortunately for them, the Ravens will be just as bad and probably worse with starting a rookie QB.

This is not a good year for Peyton to be hurting already because they have a long road ahead.  Along with playing the Titans and Jags twice, they have to travel to Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.  This team isn’t getting any younger.  They are still elite, but they won’t win the division.  The Jags, on the other hand, go on the road to Detroit and Chicago instead of Green Bay and Minnesota, and they don’t play the Chargers or Patriots.  This is a strong team already, and 11 wins and division crown are in the cards.  The Titans will be around the same place as last year, but they lost a couple key key guys on defense. They are blessed with the easiest road schedule in the conference, playing out of the division in Cincinatti, Baltimore, Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit.  If Vince Young improves his play and they beat the Jags tomorrow and the Colts in October, this is a team that could even sneak past Indianapolis and into the playoffs.  As for the Texans, I love the Shaub-Johnson tandem, but this team will be 1-4 before they blink and one of those two playmakers will likely be in the trainer’s room by that point.

The Chargers are the trendy pick to finally beat out the Patriots and win the Super Bowl.  They definitely have a lot of talent at all the skills positions.  Rivers is improving each year and gaining leadership skills.  Merriman is taking a big risk by playing with an injured knee.  Football is such a dangerous high-impact game with a lot of freak accidents, even for already-healthy guys, it would be an unlikely miracle for him to make it through this season without further injuring his knee.  Because of that, and because LT has gotten a huge load for like 5 seasons in a row, this team won’t get home field in the playoffs over the Patriots and I don’t think they will march into New England in January and win.  I like Jay Cutler to improve and I previously picked the Broncos to steal that 6th playoff spot, but maybe that won’t be enough.  I’ll tell you what, if they can beat the Jets on the road Nov 30th then they will reach the playoffs but if not they will be at 8-8.  Oakland is gradually getting better.  McFadden was a good pick, even though they already had a full backfield.  JaMarcus has more weapons to use and the defense is still pretty good.  They could peak at 9 w’s but I think 9 losses is more likely.  Kansas City is the youngest team in the NFL and the least-improved.  They have 33 players with less than 2 years experience, and they are starting at least 4 rookies in week 1 at New England.  Larry Johnson will have a long season because the defenses will be stacked against him (then again, it might be another short season for him).

Playoffs
Jags over Titans
Steelers over Colts
Patriots over Steelers
Chargers over Jags
AFC Champhionship Game: Patriots over Chargers

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION
New England 28, Dallas 20

So I’m excited about the NFL season.  Maybe just because I’m sick of crying about the Yankees.  Here’s what I’m picking this week.  Hurray, I got the picture to work!

1.  The Titans will defend their home turf and beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2.  The Chiefs will not score a touchdown against the Patriots.
3.  Minnesota will come into Green Bay and give Aaron Rodgers a whuppin’.  And win.
4.  The highest scoring (combined) game of the week will be Arizona over the San Francisco 49ers.
5.  The Eagles will cover the spread and beat the Rams by at least 10.

So the site or my computer won’t let me put up pictures for you.  Sad day, huh?  Sorry this is so aesthetically unpleasing.

The Cowboys have a very very talented team.  I love the trade for Pacman Jones who could win a game or two by himself on special teams and defense.  On offense, Romo has a million weapons to pick from.  They should easily win 13 games and then win their first playoff game since the Troy Aikman days.  The Giants lost a lot on defense, but I believe in their coordinator and they added a Cougar, Brian Kiehl.  Gotta love that.  Eli got the monkey off his back showing that he is actually capable of performing in a clutch situation.  That can only help him.  They have a tough schedule, but I’m rooting for them to snag a wild card.

Adrian Peterson is my pick from NFL MVP this year.  I don’t know much about Tavarius Jackson, but AP should make his job a bit easier, kinda like LT and Rivers, so I see a big step up for the quarterback, especially with the added weapon of Bernard Berrian.  The Packers have a tough schedule and Aaron Rodgers at the helm, and Ryan Grant is limping into the season opener.  7 wins is my pick and no playoffs.  Where is Brett Favre…?

The Saints and Bucs both have a pretty easy schedule and should rack up 10 wins each.  I love the addition of Jeremy Shockey for the Saints, giving them even one more big-time weapon at tight end.  The defense is a bit suspect which will hold them back in the playoffs.  As for the Bucs, Jeff Garcia is a winner.

The Seahawks again have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and there isn’t anyone in the division that will challenge them.  They won’t have much of a running game, and a couple hits on Hasselback’s bad back and they will be in trouble, but that defense is still pretty good.  I don’t like them much in the playoffs.

It will be a rocky season for the Falcons, and here’s hoping Matt Ryan doesn’t get killed out there.  Maybe Ryan-to-Roddy White will turn into a big connection.  It will have to for that team to stay close in any games because the defense stinks.  The 49ers are a team that could be half-decent or just really bad depending on how O’Sullivan turns out.  He can’t be any worse than the Ute Alex Smith.  The Bears are in a similar situation: they could win 8 or they could win 2. 

Playoffs:
Giants over Saints
Vikings over Bucs
Cowboys over Giants
Vikings over Seahawks
NFC Championship game: Cowboys over Vikings

East       
Cowboys       13-3
*Giants           9-7
Eagles             9-7
Redskins         6-10

North
Vikings        9-7
Lions           8-8
Packers       7-9
Bears          7-9

South
Saints            10-6
*Buccaneers 10-6
Panthers        9-7
Falcons         4-12

West
Seahawks     11-5
Cardinals      7-9
Rams           6-10
49ers          5-11

All I want for Christmas is Roy Halladay in pinstripes.

So the NFL season starts next week.  I put together a crazy formula and out came my predictions for each team.  Today I present my AFC regular season standings prediction.

AFC
East
Patriots    14-2
Bills          8-8
Jets           7-9
Dolphins    4-12

North
Steelers    10-6
Browns     8-8
Bengals    5-11
Ravens     3-13

South
Jaguars    11-5
Colts*     10-6
Titans       8-8
Texans     6-10

West
Chargers   13-3
Broncos*  9-7
Raiders     7-9
Chiefs       4-12