I’m Miles Miller!

I accidentally just lost everything I wrote, so here’s my second draft.

So tomorrow is the biggest sports event day in America.  Looking around, I can’t think of another day that comes close: World Series (stretched over 5-9 days), NBA Finals (stretched over 5-9 days), March Madness (spread over a month), College Football championship game (not even close), New Years Day (now that all the BCS Bowls are spread over a week it lost a lot of significance), Thanksgiving Day (Lions play every year), NHL Finals (couldn’t even tell you what month)… everything else pales in comparison with Super Bowl Sunday.  There’s a little something for everyone, even the non-football fans: best parties, great commercials, and a cheesy halftime show. 

This year is an interesting matchup.  The Cardinals are one of the worst franchises in professional sports vs. the Steelers, one of the most successful (looking for a record 6th Super Bowl title).  I think everyone except Ken Wisenhunt is surprised to see the Arizona Cardinals in this game.  Looking back at my post last month about how they can get here, I said the Cardinals would have to score a lot of points (30 in each game, only team to do that) their defense would have to show up (12 turnovers in the 3 games), and they spread the field enough for Fitzgerald to already set the record for playoff receiving yards.  The Steelers’ defense has just crushes its opponents and the offense has surprised me with 58 points in the two games. 

Anyway, I love this comeback season that Kurt Warner has had, beginning on the bench to near-MVP through 3 big wins in the playoffs.  Both of these QBs have won the Super Bowl before.  I’m very surprised to see that the Steelers are only 4 point favorites in this game.  It’s hard for me to pick against them, with that pressure-cooker D and the offense that just doesn’t make very many mistakes, but looking what Larry Fitzgerald has been able to do, and the cool head on Kurt Warner, and the surprising defense that decided to make plays finally, I want to pick the upset.  I’ve made a lot of wrong predictions this postseason, so I have nothing else to lose at this point.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Steelers 24.

It was a tough weekend in the NFL Playoffs for me.  The Giants looked terrible, the Panthers looked worse, and the Chargers/Steelers game (the only one I picked correctly) was far from a low-scoring affair. 

Best game of the week: Titans vs. Ravens.
This was my most-anticipated matchup of the playoffs, superseded only with a potential Titans/Giants Super Bowl.  This is one of the biggest rivalries of the last decade, two teams who have been consistently among the most physical teams in the league, and this year they were very similar: unbreakable defenses, strong running offenses and QBs who don’t make mistakes.  This game was as good, if not better, than I could have expected.  Unfortunately, the game ended with a Tennessee Titans loss, but there’s a lot to say about the game.  Here is all the things the Titans had to overcome, both self-inflicted or unfortunate:
3 turnovers in the red zone, a missed field goal, 12 penalties, losing their best offensive player in the first half, and a terrible no-call delay of game on the winning drive http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs2008/news/story?id=3826899 .  Yet with all that, with one minute left they were still tied 10-10.  That almost says more about the Titans, how much they dominated this game and that brutal Ravens defense, that they could have all those problems, racking up 400 yards of offense, and lose only in the last minute. 

For the Ravens, I am now a member of the Joe Flacco fan club.  He is a big and strong man with a good head and a great arm.  He had one of the best throws I’ve ever seen in the first quarter, especially from a rookie.  He is in a perfect situation for a rookie to develop: team with a dominant defense and a strong 3-headed ground attack. I expect him to win a couple Super Bowls and maybe even an MVP during his career.
The most remarkable stat in the two playoff games for the Ravens: on the road against the top 2 teams in turnover ratio, they have 8 takeaways to only one turnover.  Turnovers are the #1 biggest determinant for success, and they have just dominated the season’s two top teams in that category, the Dolphins and Titans.

Now the Ravens head into Pittsburgh, a little sore from Saturday, to face a team that has beaten them twice.  It is very rare for a team to lose to the same team 3 three times the same season, and this is a team roaring with confidence.  Look out Pittsburgh.

Giants vs. Eagles

Westbrook is the most important player in this matchup, and he is not healthy.  Last week he did have a big catch for a TD, but he ran 20 times for 1.9 yards a carry, and the Giants will keep him out of the game, kinda like LT last week.  Andy Reid will hand over the game to pass-happy McNabb, and I like Eli Manning as the better big-game quarterback.  On the Giants side, Brandon Jacobs will punish the Eagles, and in the second half it will be Ward and Bradshaw draining the clock.  I don’t think this game will be close.

Giants 31, Eagles 13

Panthers vs. Cardinals
Julius Peppers will be a key factor in this game and will cause Warner and the Cardinals a lot of trouble.  Williams and Stewart will run run run, which will open the door for a big play to Steve Smith.  Boldin won’t play or won’t play much, but Warner will have plenty of big plays to Fitzgerald. 

Panthers 27, Cardinals 21

Titans vs. Ravens
As a Titans’ fan, I am nervous for this one.  Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch are returning from injury, and they likely will be out of breath in the 2nd half.  The Ravens are so physical on both sides of the field.  They are the toughest team to run against, and that gives Ed Reed plenty of opportunity to pick off Collins.  However, Baltimore relies even more on the run, and the Titans don’t give much up, either, and think the Ravens running game will be very ineffective.  I would rather have the veteran Collins, who doesn’t make mistakes, over rookie Joe Flacco.

Titans 16, Ravens 12

Steelers vs. Chargers

Bad weather, no LT, there won’t be much offense for San Diego.  Sproles will get more work but I doubt he will be effective.  Pittsburgh is the #1 defense against the pass so Rivers will have his hands full.  On the other side, the Steelers don’t have much of an offense.  I just don’t see a lot of scoring in this game and I expect one touchdown to come from the defensive end.

Steelers 13, Chargers 6

That would be a 4-0 week for the home teams. 

Game of the Week: Chargers and Colts, no question. 

My picks in the first round went 1-3.  Not so great.  As a Titans fan, I’m glad that one of those 3 was the Colts falling, because they worry me a lot more than the Chargers.

Let’s look at my keys to success for the teams.  These were for how each team could get to and win the Super Bowl, not only their opponent for this week, so there would have been some more adjustments made to design it more specifically if I had wanted.

I said the Dolphins would win if they establish the run and create turnovers, and they would lose if Pennington gets pressured.  Well, the Fins finished with 52 yards rushing, Chad was sacked 3 times and threw 4 picks.  That all equals a loss.  For the Ravens, I said get a lead early to allow the ground game to take control and force the opponents to throw, and they would lose if Flacco had to lead a comeback.  The Ravens led 13-3 at halftime, had 150+ yards rushing, and they had 4 INTs, including one run back by Ed Reed.  Result is a Ravens win. 

Colts: Get an early lead and force opponent to throw.  Find a running game on offense to take pressure off Peyton.  They’d lose by not getting much of a run game and letting opponent run a lot on them.  They never got more than a small lead, and they were out-gained 167-64.  For the Chargers, LT needed a big game.  To lose they would give up big plays, lots of passing yards, and not finish the game.  Tomlinson left early with an injury, but his replacement Darren Sproles had the biggest game of anybody who played all week.  They did give up a big play, namely the TD pass when they weren’t paying attention after a substitution. Peyton threw for over 300 yards. As to not finishing, they had a fumble in the endzone and an interception in the endzone on consecutive drives in the second half.  That’s a lot to overcome, but the Colts’ problems were greater and they didn’t capitalize on many of those miscues, other than the surprise play.  Result: Colts lose and the Chargers win.

Falcons: to win, give the game to Michael Turner and get some deep plays to Roddy White.  To lose, give up a lot of ground yards and don’t get many turnovers.  Turner only had 42 rushing yards and White’s longest reception was only 12 yards.  They were -2 on turnovers. They were playing the league’s worst rushing offense, but Edgerrin James still had 73 yards on 16 carries (4.6 avg).  For the Cardinals, I said spread the field, score a lot of points, and do something on defense. Warner had four 20+ yard completions, they scored 30 points, and the defense did great (including 3 sacks and 3 turnovers).  To lose, give up a lot of points and don’t run very effectively.  Neither happened, and that all translates to a Cardinals win and Falcons loss.

Vikings: to win, score early, run the ball, and sack the QB.  To lose, fall behind, give the game to TJack, and fumble.  They didn’t score in the first quarter, AP didn’t break 90 yards, but they did have 3 sacks.  They fell behind, Jackson threw too much (35 times, only completing 43%), and they lost a fumble.  For the Eagles, I said have a balanced offense and pressure the QB; Westbrook’s health couldn’t be lost, don’t neglect the running game, and McNabb can’t make mistakes.  Pass to rush was 34:23, not very balanced, they only had 1 sack but TJack completed less than 50% of his pass attempts, and the Eagles didn’t neglect the running game.  McNabb had 2 turnovers.  Westbrook had 20 carries, but he also had a 71 yard TD reception. 

So out of my 33 keys to the games, 26 had a direct impact in the game, and only 7 did not.  That shows that I know what I’m talking about.

Here is a snapshot of the six AFC teams, followed by my Stone Cold Picks and Super Bowl Prediction.

AFC
Titans
How they got here:  Started the season 10-0 with a dominant defense led by Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch that gave up 24 or more points only once.  Speedy rookie Chris Johnson and bruising LenDale White provided one of the best ground games over most of the season and veteran Kerry Collins played mistake-free football. Jeff Fisher is an expert for turning ordinary players into a winning team.  Best kickoff return average.  Big wins over Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Baltimore.
How they will win: own home field throughout, no turnovers, get a lead early and control the ground game.
How they will lose: Health of Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch, get forced into throwing situations to receivers no one has ever heard of.

Steelers
How they got here: Unpenetrable defense that led the league in yardage and points allowed.  Toughest team to pass against.  Ben  Roethlisberger led late winning drives in several games.  Big wins over Baltimore (twice) and San Diego.  No bad losses.
How they will win: Score an early touchdown, sack the quarterback.  The defense had an extra bye week against the Browns last week (who didn’t score an offensive touchdown the last 6 games).
How they will lose: Big Ben 2nd in NFL in sacks, running game gets stopped.

Dolphins
How they got here: Miracle turn-around from 1 win to 11 wins, Chad Pennington tied for best completion percentage.  Fewest turnovers and best turnover differential in the league.  Stunned the league by beating the Patriots and Chargers back-to-back (the two reps in last year’s AFC Championship game).  Took advantage of an easy final 5 game schedule.  Rode Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams.  One of the league’s easiest schedules.
How they will win: Establish the running game to set up the play-action pass.  Create turnovers.
How they will lose: Pressure Pennington (Chad threw an INT in 4 of their 5 losses and was sacked 11 times in the 5 losses).  

Chargers
How they got here: Miracle comeback from 4-8 record.  League’s highest rated quarterback Philip Rivers.  Lots of big threats in the receiving corp: Gates, Vincent Jackson, and Chris Chambers to go along with LT and Sproles on the ground.  Scored 52 points in the finale over Denver.  No big wins, but close losses to Carolina, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Atlanta.
How they will win: Tomlinson has a big game rushing.
How they will lose: NFL’s 31st pass defense, give up big plays, inability to finish games.   

Colts
How they got here: League MVP Peyton Manning led the Colts to 9 straight wins to finish the season.  Least fumbling team in the AFC.  Defense allowed a mind-blowing few 6 passing touchdowns all year.  Big wins over Vikings, Ravens, Steelers, Chargers, and Titans.
How they will win: get a lead and force the opposing team to throw.  Find a running game.
How they will lose: Lowest yard-per-carry average in the league.  Allow the other team to control the ground game.

Ravens
How they got here: One of league’s best defenses, led the league in interceptions led by Ed Reed’s 9.  Balanced run game that led the league in time of possession and the AFC in yards.  Big wins over Dolphins and Eagles.  No bad losses.
How they will win: Get an early lead so they can run the ball and force the opponent to throw.
How they will lose: Force Joe Flacco to lead a comeback.  Already lost this season to Titans, Steelers (twice), and Colts.

Miller’s Stone Cold Predictions
Colts over Chargers
Ravens over Dolphins
Titans over Ravens
Colts over Steelers

AFC Championship
Titans 16, Colts 14

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION
NY Giants 24, Titans 13

It’s a new year, and that means Super Bowl Sunday, the biggest non-family-party holiday of the year is just around the corner.  The playoffs will be a little more boring without Tom Brady this year but there are lots of things to be excited about.  Here’s a snapshot at each playoff team, starting with the 6 in the NFC.

NFC
Giants 
How they got here:  Give the coaches some credit, because Eli Manning turned from a bad and erratic quarterback to a legitimate Pro Bowl selection.  This defense, sans Osi and Strahan, stayed around the league lead in sacks most of the year.  Earth, Wind, and Fire (Jacobs, Ward, and Bradshaw) formed the best rushing team in the league.  The Giants won 6 consecutive games in a row over opponents with winning records, never done before.  They led the NFC in turnover differential.
How they will win: Physical defense that makes big plays, run the ball.
How they will lose: Eli calls early timeouts that they need later on, Brandon Jacob’s health.

Panthers
How they got here: 8-0 at home.  Steve Smith catches everything thrown at him.  Arguably the best backfield duo in football with DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart.  Big wins over San Diego, Chicago, Atlanta, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Denver.  No losses to bad teams. 
How they will win: They won the best division in football.  DeAngelo leads the league in TDs and he doesn’t fumble the ball.  Run the ball to free up the pass for Steve Smith.
How they will lose: Double team Steve Smith, fall behind early, defense gives up a lot of points.

Vikings
How they got here: leading rusher in the league with Adrian Peterson, and the defense was the best against the run.  Wins over the Giants and Panthers this year.
How they will win: score early to set up the ground game, sack the quarterback.
How they will lose: fall behind early, rely too much on unproven Tarvarius Jackson, fumble the ball.

Cardinals
How they got here: Kurt Warner resurrected his career by winning back the starting job and putting together an MVP caliber season.  One of the best receiving corps in football with Boldin and Fitzgerald.  One of the easiest schedules in football.  Won the NFL’s worst division.
How they will win: Spread the field, score a lot of points, defense shows up.
How they will lose: worst ground offense in the league, defense allowed 35+ points in 5 games. 

Falcons
How they got here: Feel good story of the year.  Matt Ryan has an MVP-worthy rookie season.  First-year-starter Michael Turner is second in the league in rushing and touchdowns.  Wins 7 of the last 9 games including big ones over Carolina, San Diego, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota.  7-1 at home.
How they will win:  Run, Turner, run.  Set up for the deep pass to Roddy White.
How they will lose: worst rushing defense among playoff teams, tied in the NFC for fewest takeaways.

Eagles
How they got here: smoked the Cowboys in Week 17.  McNabb bounced back from a benching to win 4 of the last 5 games.   Best defense in the NFC (for points and yardage), and second in sacks.  Big wins include Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Arizona, Giants, and that one to Dallas. 
How they will win: Balanced offense, pressure the quarterback. 
How they will lose: Westbrook’s health, neglect the running game, McNabb make poor decisions.

Miller’s Stone Cold Predictions
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Atlana over Arizona
NY Giants over Atlanta
Carolina over Minnesota

NFC Champhionship:
NY Giants 24, Carolina 20

Miracles and feel-good-stories aren’t as fun as colossal collapses, but they deserve some attention as well.  This season was full of them. 

1.  Sure, this goes back to last season, too.  Two years ago the Giants were in heaps of chaos.  The coach was arguing with the superstar running back, the QB couldn’t hit a target for his life, the star tight end created problems, fans wanted the coach given the boot, etc.  They lost their star tailback Tiki Barber and made the playoffs.  With their Pro Bowl tight end out with an injury, they made it to the Super Bowl.  And against the historic undefeated New England Patriots, they won the Super Bowl on one of the greatest plays you’ll ever see (Eli to Tyrie).  In the off-season they lost their Hall of Fame bound lineman Michael Strahan to retirement, and then they lost their best defensive player Osi to injury for the year in the preseason.  Midseason their star wideout shot himself in the leg and got suspended the rest of the season.  That’s a lot of adversity to overcome.  Yet with all that, they come into the playoffs as the best team and #1 seed.  Kudos to Coughlin.

2.  Miami Dolphins were the joke of the season last year.  When they managed to win that one game last year they hugged and cried as if it were the Super Bowl.  They were a complete mess with no QB (pardon me John Beck) and losing their two best players Zach Thomas and Justin Taylor.  But they hired the Big Tuna as vice president, benefited from the Favre fiasco in Green Bay and New York by picking Chad Pennington out of the dumpster, benefited from the health of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and won the last 5 games (including the big finale against Pennington’s disposers, the Jets) to clinch the division.  True, they only beat one playoff team (the Chargers, who barely got to 8-8), but climbing to 11 wins and a division crown after a 15 loss debacle is historic.

3.  Atlanta Falcons last year were in as big a mess as possible.  The team’s only star got sent to jail and after a 4-12 season, the coach got canned.  The 3-headed monster under center (Harrington, Leftwich, Redman) never woke up.  They brought no hope.  But the owner made a good hire at coach, drafted rookie Matt Ryan out of Boston College to start Week 1, and signed free-agent and LT backup Michael Turner as the feature running back, and 16 games later this team is in the playoffs.  They didn’t manage to continue the division’s trend of worst-to-first, but an 11-5 record and playoff game in Arizona is more than what anyone could have dreamed of.  Matt Ryan looks like he will be a great quarterback in the league for a long time.

4.  Baltimore Ravens were coming off a 5-11 season (9 losses in a row before a win over the Steelers who were already in the playoffs), their starting QB retired and their next one got hurt before the season started.  Like the Falcons, they came into the year with a rookie coach and rookie QB, a historically low success formula.  But the defense that gave up 20+ points in each of the last 9 games the previous season was the second best unit in the NFL in 2008, and Flacco directed an offense that led the league in controlling the clock.  Heading into the year this appeared to a team that would battle for a #1 draft pick, but there is no offense that wants to match up against this D in the playoffs.

We witnessed three historic collapses this year and at least three miracles.  Miracles will be covered later.

1.  Collapse of the Broncos.  You never really knew what you’d get from game to game with this team.  They started the year 3-0, had quality wins over the Bucs, Chargers, and Falcons, snapped the Jets’ 5 game winning streak, and at 8-5 they had a 3 game lead over the division with 3 games left.  Yet they also suffered losses to the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, and Bills along the way.  The defense was terrible, but it looked like this was a lead not even they could squander.  Yet they proved the impossible and gave up 52 more points in the play-in game against the 7-8 Chargers.  I don’t think it was enough to cost Shanahan his job, but this was the most up and down team I’ve ever seen.

2.  Collapse of the Jets.  Maybe Mangini invested too much into Brett Favre so that’s why their tumble led to his demise.  All I heard the whole year was “Brett Favre, Brett Favre” and somehow he even made the Pro Bowl.  His team did have impressive wins over Miami, Arizona, New England, and the then-undefeated Titans, but they also lost to the Seahawks, 49ers, and Raiders.  Pro Bowl Brett did not reach 300 yards passing in any game, led the league in interceptions and was 21st in QB rating.  Following the big win over Tennessee, Favre had 2 TDs vs. 9 INTs over the last 5 games, including 3 in the play-in game verses the Dolphins.  They were 8-3 after that big win over the Titans and yet managed to miss out on post-season play, scoring under 20 in all 4 of their last 4 losses.  As it turns out, to preserve his consecutive starts streak, Favre was playing through a torn biceps tendon.  We are not talking about a sore arm, but a torn biceps tendon (something that helps when you are trying to throw the ball).  So you can thank Brett’s ego for the canning of Eric Mangini and the team’s failure.  Lucky for them, the Packers finished no better.

3.  Collapse of the Cowboys.  This was one of the highest-drama teams I’ve ever seen.  We had a star receiver complaining because the quarterback had a different favorite target than him, we had a troubled cornerback get in a fight with his body guard, we had the owner calling his star running back “soft”, pandemonium when the quarterback broke his pinkie, and a pathetic 6-44 showing in the final game of the season where “they controlled their destiny.”  Romo has good games from time to time, but he is possibly the biggest choker in all of football.  He makes more dumb mistakes that cost games than anyone.  I guess the team’s failure isn’t too unbelievable; their final schedule had consecutive games against the Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles, who all made the playoffs.